Monday, August 13, 2007

Vanderbilt football '07: my predictions

Putting my Vanderbilt history degree to work (though making no claims as to statistical accuracy, since it is a history degree), I present the following review of the past five games against the Commodores' 2007 opponents, with averages for 5-game and 2-game margins of victory (where available), followed by analysis of the 2007 season based upon these statistics.


RICHMOND SPIDERS

2005 UR 13 VU 37 (-24 pts., Nashville)
2001 UR 22 VU 28 (-6 pts., Nashville)

2-game average margin: -15 pts. (favor VU)
Last 2 in Nashville: -15 pts. (favor VU)


ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

2006 UA 13 VU 10 (3 pts., Tuscaloosa)
2002 UA 20 VU 08 (12 pts., Nashville)
2001 UA 12 VU 09 (3 pts., Nashville)
2000 UA 28 VU 12 (16 pts., Birmingham)
1999 UA 28 VU 17 (11 pts., Nashville)

5-game average margin: 9 pts. (favor UA)
2-game average margin: 7.5 pts. (favor UA)
Last 2 in Nashville: 7.5 pts. (favor UA)


MISSISSIPPI REBELS

2006 UM 17 VU 10 (7 pts., Oxford)
2005 UM 23 VU 31 (-8 pts., Nashville)
2004 UM 27 VU 24 (3 pts., overtime in Oxford)
2003 UM 24 VU 21 (3 pts., Nashville)
2002 UM 45 VU 38 (7 pts., Oxford)

5-game average margin: 2.4 pts. (favor UM)
2-game average margin: -0.5 pts. (favor VU)
Last 2 in Nashville: -2.5 pts. (favor VU)


EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES

First meeting


AUBURN TIGERS

2003 AU 45 VU 07 (38 pts., Nashville)
2002 AU 31 VU 06 (25 pts., Auburn)
2001 AU 24 VU 21 (3 pts., Nashville)
2000 AU 33 VU 00 (33 pts., Auburn)
1993 AU 14 VU 10 (4 pts., Nashville)

5-game average margin: 20.6 pts. (favor AU)
2-game average margin: 31.5 pts. (favor AU)
Last 2 in Auburn: 29 pts. (favor AU)


GEORGIA BULLDOGS

2006 UG 22 VU 24 (-2 pts., Athens)
2005 UG 34 VU 17 (17 pts., Nashville)
2004 UG 33 VU 03 (30 pts., Athens)
2003 UG 27 VU 08 (19 pts., Nashville)
2002 UG 48 VU 17 (31 pts., Athens)

5-game average margin: 19 pts. (favor UG)
2-game average margin: 7.5 pts. (favor UG)
Last 2 in Nashville: 18 pts. (favor UG)


SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

2006 SC 31 VU 13 (18 pts., Nashville)
2005 SC 35 VU 28 (7 pts., Columbia)
2004 SC 31 VU 06 (25 pts., Nashville)
2003 SC 35 VU 24 (11 pts., Columbia)
2002 SC 20 VU 14 (7 pts., Nashville)

5-game average margin: 13.6 pts. (favor SC)
2-game average margin: 12.5 pts. (favor SC)
Last 2 in Columbia: 9 pts. (favor SC)


MIAMI (OH) REDHAWKS

2000 UM 33 VU 30 (3 pts., Nashville)
1899 UM 00 VU 12 (-12 pts., Nashville)

2-game average margin: -4.5 pts. (favor VU)
Last 2 in Nashville: -4.5 pts. (favor VU)


FLORIDA ALLIGATORS

2006 UF 25 VU 19 (6 pts., Nashville)
2005 UF 49 VU 42 (7 pts., double-overtime in Gainesville)
2004 UF 34 VU 17 (17 pts., Nashville)
2003 UF 35 VU 17 (18 pts., Gainesville)
2002 UF 21 VU 17 (4 pts., Nashville)

5-game average margin: 10.4 pts. (favor UF)
2-game average margin: 6.5 pts. (favor UF)
Last 2 in Gainesville: 12.5 pts. (favor UF)


KENTUCKY WILDCATS

2006 UK 38 VU 26 (12 pts., Lexington)
2005 UK 48 VU 43 (5 pts., Nashville)
2004 UK 14 VU 13 (1 pt., Lexington)
2003 UK 17 VU 28 (-11 pts., Nashville)
2002 UK 41 VU 21 (20 pts., Lexington)

5-game average margin: 5.4 pts. (favor UK)
2-game average margin: 8.5 pts. (favor UK)
Last 2 in Nashville: -3 pts. (favor VU)


TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

2006 UT 39 VU 10 (29 pts., Nashville)
2005 UT 24 VU 28 (-4 pts., Knoxville)
2004 UT 38 VU 33 (5 pts., Nashville)
2003 UT 48 VU 00 (48 pts., Knoxville)
2002 UT 24 VU 00 (24 pts., Nashville)

5-game average margin: 20.4 pts. (favor UT)
2-game average margin: 12.5 pts. (favor UT)
Last 2 in Knoxville: 22 pts. (favor UT)


WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

2005 WF 20 VU 24 (-4 pts., Winston-Salem)
2000 WF 10 VU 17 (-7 pts., Winston-Salem)
1994 WF 14 VU 35 (-21 pts., Nashville)
1993 WF 12 VU 27 (-15 pts., Winston-Salem)
1992 WF 40 VU 06 (34 pts., Nashville)

5-game average margin: -2.6 pts. (favor VU)
2-game average margin: -5.5 pts. (favor VU)
Last 2 in Nashville: 6.5 pts. (favor WF)


Based on this analysis, I predict the following record, with point
spreads in parentheses:

RICHMOND: W (Vanderbilt -14)
ALABAMA: L (Vanderbilt +7)
MISSISSIPPI: W (Vanderbilt -2)
EASTERN MICHIGAN: W (Vanderbilt -14)
AUBURN: L (Vanderbilt +21)
GEORGIA: L (Vanderbilt +8)
SOUTH CAROLINA: L (Vanderbilt +10)
MIAMI (OH): W (Vanderbilt -3)
FLORIDA: L (Vanderbilt +8)
KENTUCKY: L (Vanderbilt +5)
TENNESSEE: L (Vanderbilt +14)
WAKE FOREST: W (Vanderbilt -3)

2007 Football season record: 5-7

Comments? Thoughts? Questions? Burns? Is this analysis reflective of reality? How reliable is this sort of analysis? I guess we'll see (and I hope the Commies throw stats out the window and kick butt).

FEELING: Somewhat disappointed about the 5-7 result
LISTENING TO: Dynamite anyway

3 Comments:

At 5:33 PM, Anonymous Chris Townsend said...

Looks solid. It will be interesting to see if these prior probabilities play out. Of course, the Alabama game isn't really in question. Roll Tide.

 
At 5:47 PM, Blogger Bennett said...

Come on, Dillon! If you're gonna make some inappropriate conclusions from some old data, at least make it optimistic!
GO DORES!

 
At 8:45 PM, Anonymous Arthur said...

Mr. Barker as requested I am posting my thoughts... Speaking also as a history major (but as one who has displayed a bit more mathematical competence LMAO) your logic is sound, aside of course from the objections that bennett has raised. I do not, however, pretend to have any competence, understanding, or serious interest in football and so in that respect have little to contribute and will have to trust your and my fellow posters conclusions.

 

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